I don’t think it’s an exaggeration to say the U.S. commercial HVAC market is at a critical turning point. I’m not just talking about another growth cycle. This is more about a structural shift in how commercial HVAC systems are specified, sold, installed, and maintained.

If you go back and look at our 2025 Commercial HVAC Market Outlook, the core assumptions were solid.

As I researched and wrote that article, it looked like efficiency, electrification, and modernization were going to drive demand. As we head into 2026, more current data confirms much of that — but it also adds important context that High Performance HVAC™ contractors need to understand.

Mike Weil, NCI's Editor-in-Chief and Director of Communications examines the commercial HVAC market outlook for 2026
Mike Weil, Editor-in-Chief and NCI Director of Communications

This market is growing. But the growth favors those contractors who can deliver performance, compliance, and lifecycle value — not just new commercial equipment. And when I talk about performance, I am referring to the High-Performance HVAC™ approach as taught by the team at National Comfort Institute (NCI).

The 2025 Baseline: What We Expected

Last year’s outlook painted a bullish picture. The U.S. commercial HVAC sector was projected to grow rapidly, driven by tightening energy regulations, aging building stock, and increased emphasis on sustainability and efficiency.

At the time, forecasts suggested the market could grow close to $35 billion in 2025. Those projections were supported by several clear trends:

City-scape with arrows shows the upward trend for the commercial HVAC market in the U.S. in 2026.
  • Energy codes and decarbonization policies were getting tougher
  • Owners of aging commercial buildings were being forced into retrofits and system upgrades
  • Urbanization and multi family construction were expanding HVAC demand
  • Technologies like Variable Refrigerant Flow (VRF), newer high efficiency heat pump technology, and smarter controls were gaining traction.

At the heart of it all was a simple idea: efficiency and electrification were becoming unavoidable, not optional.

Growth With Reality Checks

Fast forward to late 2025 and looking toward early 2026, and the overall narrative still holds — but with more nuance.

Recent market studies put the U.S. commercial HVAC market in the $45 to 50 billion range for 2025, with growth projections pushing toward $70 billion by the end of the decade. That’s strong growth by any standard.

For HVAC contractors, that the opportunity is real but it’s not evenly distributed. Growth isn’t coming from more box swapping or commodity installs. It’s coming from retrofits, electrification projects, compliance driven replacements, and performance based upgrades.

By the way, in the 2026 Trends Report from AHRI (Air Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute), another factor impacting the commercial segment are the tariffs the Trump administration is doling out. AHRI President and CEO Steve Yurek says that the 2026 watchword is “affordability.”

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