I’ve been in the HVAC industry long enough to know that politics can often ripple through our businesses in ways we never imagined. During President Trump’s second term’s first 150-plus days in office, those ripples felt more like waves — and for contractors in the High-Performance HVAC™ sector, they came fast and from multiple directions.
While I don’t pretend to be a political expert, I do pay close attention to policy changes that potentially impact contractors’ bottom lines. During that early stretch of the Trump administration, a lot was happening — some of it promising, some of it concerning.
Tariffs: The Immediate Squeeze
One of the first things that hit our industry was the implementation of tariffs on imported goods, including HVAC components. These weren’t minor price adjustments — some analysts warned we could see equipment costs jump by as much as 20 to 40%. That’s not just a margin-eater; that’s a business-changer.
HVAC contractors started feeling the pressure in the supply chain almost immediately. Delays, brand switches, and shortages — it was a continuation of the issues that stemmed from COVID-19 shutdowns, creating a logistical scramble.
The good news is that several contractors I’ve spoken to say many homeowners are favoring and buying more system upgrades once shown the benefits and savings created by high-performance systems.
The HVAC Rebate Freeze
The administration’s decision to pause disbursements under the Inflation Reduction Act — particularly rebates related to HVAC energy upgrades — certainly added more uncertainty.
We all know that rebates are often the tipping point in a sale. When those were frozen, it undermined homeowner confidence in government-backed energy programs altogether.
A New Focus on Skilled Trades
One bright spot came in the form of an executive order that highlighted the importance of skilled trades and workforce development. For High-Performance HVAC businesses, this wasn’t just political lip service — it aligned with this industry’s everyday reality.
There is an ongoing shortage of technicians. The fact is, contractors need talent. Real talent. Not just people who can carry tools, but techs who understand airflow, diagnostics, and real-world system performance. The government is finally shining a light on the skilled labor gap.
One significant opportunity from this re-focus is that you can now re-frame your recruiting messages. You can double down on internships, training programs, and high-performance technician roles.
I believe, for the first time in decades, we will see more young people — who usually overlook the trades — express interest in HVAC careers.
Deregulation: Less Paper, More Performance?
There is also the move toward regulatory relief. Now, I know not every regulation is bad — some help set standards that elevate our industry. But others can feel like bureaucratic anchors.
Anything that lets contractors spend more time focused on working on the business and less time on paperwork is worth paying attention to. Still, deregulation comes with responsibility.
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