Post cites this statement from a recent Federal Reserve Study “that found that high-income households (defined as $100k+) saw inflation-adjusted retail spending increase 16.7% from January 2018 to August 2024.

“This increase was 13.3% for middle-income households ($60k–100k) and only 7.9% for low-income households ($0k–60k). While this study is specific to retail spending, the effect is probably even more pronounced on the services side of the economy,” Post wrote.

Other Statistics

The Grandview Research report also has statistics show that two to three million heating and cooling systems are replaced in the U.S.

That is an excellent statistic. The opportunities go beyond just the demand for new and replacement units. There is a notable upswing in maintenance and repair activities.

HVAC contractors who sell and perform regular equipment cleaning and maintenance (preferably by selling maintenance agreements) help consumers prevent system damage or failure. Maintenance agreements will continue providing a robust revenue stream for contractors in 2025 and beyond. Agreement sales continue leveling seasonal ups and downs for more consistent revenues.

However, supply chain issues stemming from the pandemic shutdowns of a few years ago still caused some problems for contractors and distributors alike in 2024. Several sources report that supply chain issues will continue declining next year, especially on the residential side of things.

Are there still some product shortages? Yes, but many contractors, including Ben DiMarco of Cleveland-based DiMarco & Associates, see that it will become less of an issue in 2025 and beyond.

The Air Conditioning Contractors of America (ACCA) posted an article on their website that says the industry is heating up and set to “explode in size over the next 10 years.”

They say that the U.S. HVAC services market will increase in value to nearly $36 billion by 2030 and will create 13% more HVAC service and installation jobs by 2028.

Technician Shortage Trend Continues

Speaking of jobs, workforce issues remain at the top of most trend lists. Though the ACCA article is positive, the U.S. HVAC industry is currently short 38% of the technicians it needs, with 110,000 unfilled positions out of 290,000 technicians (according to a trending report written for an economic research group called Workyard by writer Luis Batongbakal).

That same report says that our industry loses 23,000 workers annually, which could lead to a shortage of 225,000 technicians in five years.

The good news is that contractors do have ways to create technician opportunities in 2025 and beyond. Think about what you can do to build an incredible work environment and strengthen your market reputation that can help attract people to your company.

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